Business cycle dating committee definition

Rather than having four separate charts, I've created an overlay to help us evaluate the relative behavior of the indicators at the cycle peaks and troughs. Click for a larger image The chart above is an excellent starting point for evaluating the relevance of the four indicators in the context of two very different recessions.In both cases, the bounce in Industrial Production matches the NBER trough while Employment and Personal Incomes lagged in their respective reversals.The data points show the cumulative percent change from a zero starting point for June 2009.We now have the three indicator updates for the 61th month following the recession. Current Assessment and Outlook The overall picture of the US economy had been one of slow recovery from the Great Recession with a clearly documented contraction during the winter, as reflected in Q1 GDP.As for the start of these two 21st century recessions, the indicator declines are less uniform in their behavior.We can see, however, that Employment and Personal Income were laggards in the declines.I've included recessions to help illustrate the impact of the business cycle on this metric.Total Nonfarm Employees There are many ways to plot employment.

The "Tax Planning Strategies" annotation refers to shifting income into the current year to avoid a real or expected tax increase.The advantage of this approach is that it helps us visualize declines more clearly and to compare the depth of declines for each indicator and across time (e.g., the short 2001 recession versus the Great Recession).Here is my own four-pack showing the indicators with this technique.Data for Q2 supported the consensus view that severe winter weather was responsible for the Q1 contraction -- that it was not the beginnings of a business cycle decline.However, the average of these indicators in recent months suggests that, despite the Q2 rebound in GDP, the economy remains near stall speed.